The spectacularly wrong Brexit predictions could be good news for Corbyn

A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows the public opinion – Grantland Rice

As I write this article Mark Carney is explaining to MPs how in the world he and the other financial institutions called the Brexit vote fallout so wrong. Why was the economy not falling faster than a drunk on an ice rink, why had manufacturing and services put out some of the best performance in recent months, and the important question, why and how was the sky still firmly in place when it should have come crashing down around our ears the moment the Sunderland vote came in?

By his and practically every other “experts” pre-vote opinion, we should be residing in some kind of third world backwater by now. House prices should have dropped so much that you could buy a good London 3 bed detached for a can of spam and a tin opener. War should be raging across the continent, a continent very much unrecognisable because as all the papers were quick to point out, the UK was voting to leave “Europe” not the EU, and thus should seemingly  have broken off the continental shelf and be drifting somewhere close by Cuba right now.

The Ireland peace process is still very much peaceful, hordes of terrorists have not created a new state in Somerset, depopulation has not occurred as vast numbers of the impoverished citizens of the UK seek to move to more stable climates in Syria and the SNP are doing a little bit of posturing about independence to try and seem slightly relevant and in control.

Now of course Brexit has not actually happened yet. Article 50 has yet to be pushed. Apparently that is the new goal post for when doomsday will start. When the end of the world doesn’t happen after article 50,  I imagine the can will be kicked down the road to a few years after our actual exit.

But the fact remains that all of the predictions of what would happen immediately after the vote were wrong. All of the opinion polls predicting the result were wrong. Everything was completely and utterly wrong. Scaremongering you could even say.

So why so many of them wrong? How if they are genuine experts on the particular subject could so many of them gotten it completely tits up? My opinion is that many of them are under political pressure to do so. Either from their own political views, or connections within their roles coercing them to publish a chosen narrative.

This isn’t uncommon here in the UK. Our newspapers no longer print actual news. They are mouth pieces for their chosen political agenda. If you read the Guardian, The Indy or the Mirror today you will see postive economic stories hidden away, whilst any inkling of the Brexit vote being a negative, like homeless cats, or tepid tap water is front page stuff.

The Express, The Daily Mail and the other right wing papers are the complete opposite, refusing to publish any signs of trouble ahead, and making the next 3 years out to be made of Unicorn licks and rainbow kisses.

For the most part newspapers and their websites are effectively opinion pieces, which of course is exactly what is, but I don’t get paid for this, nor do I pretend its anything else.

This isn’t confined to the Brexit vote. Do you remember how the polls and media showed UKIP had no chance whatsoever of winning the Euro elections? Or how there was this grave threat of a SNP/ Labour Coalition at the General election 2015, where Milliband had a 50/50 chance of being PM according to every poll in the land – again experts getting it spectacularly wrong.

The point is, if you have not gotten it by now that there is always a narrative to pushed in order to keep people on the same course we have been for decades. Making another choice seem like a disaster or a waste of time to ensure we keep the same political system, same economic model, same MPs, same old parties. No change. Change is bad. The media all say they clamour for it, but you shouldn’t ever vote for it, that’s the only way they say we will get it. Just trust them etc.

Now I want you to consider something. If all these experts and media houses have been wrong on Brexit. Wrong on the general election and wrong on the Euro Elections, what makes you think that the stuff they are all spouting about Corbyn is gospel?

Here comes my usual disclaimer that I would never vote for him – he advocates socialism and I don’t think its a workable system. Also from my own political leanings his ideas are mad a box of Frogs. Eccentric scientist frogs. Scientist Frogs on LSD. But, I can see his and his ideas appeal to the left wing and the young millennials in particular. I also have a bit of a soft spot for him politically. Sure I enjoy taking the piss, its hard not to, but at least he is different and importantly stands for something different.

What I see, is Corbyn rallies where there is huge, absolutely huge, turnouts that go unreported. I see a massive online support for him which is dismissed a small group of nutters (I’ve voted UKIP for many years, so I have heard this before). I see people in my workplace becoming braver and openly stating they like him and what he stands for, and they don’t care what others say, they are voting for him. (I work in London, in the media, so maybe that last ones not all that odd!) I hear of him having no chance in the North, but see tonnes of interviews with young northerners particularly from areas like Liverpool and Manchester raving about him.

Lastly I see a person who would change the political, social and economic landscape so dramatically if he were ever to get a semblance of power, that if ever there was a cause for the MSM, pollsters and the old guard of politics to unite, this is it. Come back Farage, all is forgiven.

So look, I’m not saying they have it wrong and Corbyn is going to be our next PM. I am saying they don’t ever seem to get it right…so I would be more comfortable with them predicting a Corbyn landslide.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s