There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction – John F. Kennedy
So good old Dave is finally there, just the small hurdle of getting all the other EU countries to agree and then he has managed the impossible. To ask for nothing and get even less.
Once he managed to get it all set in concrete, the chances are he’s going to push for a June referendum. That is just a small 4 months away. I’m positive that Cameron could have gotten more from his negotiations, in fact even Cameron knows he could have, but that would have taken time, and time is something precious in this referendum and it is something Cameron doesn’t have.
To delay any further than June would mean the public seeing an ever worsening EU, with Greece set to need yet another bailout soon or face expulsion. The migrant crisis will only worsen as the weather gets warmer, with all the bad news that has accompanied it. The UK migration figures are due to be released and will be just as bad, if not worse than last year, and lastly the elephant in the room that none of the big papers yet want to point out (especially the pro-EU ones) is that all the signs point to another global financial crash on the horizon. A big one. One that the EuroZone currency is going to find very difficult indeed.
Once all this happens Cameron knows that the leave vote would increase and hence his urgency to take whatever he can get, come back waving an empty piece of paper and yell “Eureka I have the answer, we should now vote to stay”, even if it makes him look like a complete and utter idiot in the process.
Lets get one thing straight from the off. That negotiation has been embarrassing, worthless and a complete waste of everyone’s time. Everyone agrees with this, whether they publicly say it or not. The “concessions” he looks likely to get change nothing. In fact given that they all require an EU vote, its arguable that we have less power than we did prior.
If ever anyone was in any doubt that our sovereignty was overruled by the EU surely they must now be clear on the matter. Not only did our PM have to go with a begging bowl to get some minor changes to our own benefits system, but then he was told that even in an emergency we have to ask for more permission to implement said changes! It’s actually quite funny when you look at it.
Everyone in the leave camp has been lording it over old Cameron, rubbing there hands with glee at the pitiful display. Absolutely cock sure that this proof of our governments impotence, coupled with the migrant crisis, and UKs increasing migration is now a green light for a “leave” win.
They are right that it should be, but its sadly far from the case. Dependant upon which poll you choose, the voting intentions are basically very close indeed, either a narrow lead for either side or neck and neck.
Now I know polls have shown themselves to be somewhat unreliable in recent months, but we shouldn’t just disregard them entirely. By all rights they should show a storming lead for “leave” but they don’t.
The reasons for this will vary, but one of the main ones is that there are a hell of a lot of people that just don’t know which way they are going to vote. They have not made their mind up. Just like those that had already decided which way they were going to vote before Camerons “renegotiation”, whatever Cameron came back with wasn’t going to sway them either way. Why should it, when it changes nothing?
I’m sorry to say, but the leave campaign from all groups has been lacklustre at best and without a doubt contributes to the number of people sitting on the sidelines. That there is still no single “leave” campaign, and in fact complete war between those particular camps is damaging beyond Camerons wildest dreams. Egos are coming before the common good. They should have agreed a merger, yet they wont and I’m actually worried about the ramifications of this for the leave side.
The sad thing is that in their quest to be the faces of “Brexit” and go down in the annuls of history, they might yet end up as the people who couldn’t come together when all the cards were on their side, lose the referendum and be consigned to the dustbin of history instead. I and many others will never forgive them if this turns out to be so.
There a complete shortage of coherent and strong messages being churned out for left wing inclined voters to vote “leave”. There are many reasons they should – TTIP, enforced austerity, increased democracy and representation and lack of union power to name a just a few. The main reason being peddled of immigration concerns, whilst extremely valid and important just isn’t going to get your average left wing voter on side – and make no mistake we need them to win it, its an impossibility without.
Lastly there is very scant discussion about what staying in the union means. There is an immensely strong argument that staying in the European Union is more dangerous than leaving from economic and security angles. No one is talking about it anywhere near loudly enough. We need to be.
The UK will join the Euro if we stay in, The UK will sign up to TTIP if we stay in, The UK will be forced to increase its financial contributions if we stay in, corporate companies operating in the UK will get more and more power from the EU if we stay in. The EU is has plans to create a EU army and the UK will be involved if we stay in. So on and so forth.
So yes, there are concerns about leaving and boy have we heard about those, both the true and the fantastical, but staying needs to pitched and shown as the more damaging option, because if people have not decided by now with all the damaging reasons to leave over the past 40 years, then we need to show them what will happen within the EU over the next 40.
We need to do this and the leadership of “Leave” need to do it fast, because June is coming, and before it will come a media campaign the likes of which we have never seen, scaring those undecided voters into a remain vote.
If they get there first its over, and we wont ever get another chance. This will be the last time the UK gets a say on in or out, of that have no doubt. This is it. Its now or never.